State of the League 10/19
Nearing the middle point of the season, it is time we examine the league and where it will end up. This season has been especially unusual with many injuries and several surprise teams. As we stand right now here is the breakdown by team standings:
Teams
1.) Green Bay Packers (6-0) 17.) Chicago Bears (3-3)
2.) Detroit Lions (5-1) 18.) Houston Texans (3-3)
3.) New England Patriots (5-1) 19.) New York Jets (3-3)
4.) San Francisco 49’ers (5-1) 20.) Cleveland Browns (2-3)
5.) Baltimore Ravens (4-1) 21.) Dallas Cowboys (2-3)
6.) San Diego Chargers (4-1) 22.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-3)
7.) Buffalo Bills (4-2) 23.) Seattle Seahawks (2-3)
8.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) 24.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-4)
9.) New Orleans Saints (4-2) 25.) Arizona Cardinals (1-4)
10.) New York Giants (4-2) 26.) Denver Broncos (1-4)
11.) Oakland Raiders (4-2) 27.) Carolina Panthers (1-5)
12.) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) 28.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5)
13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) 29.) Minnesota Vikings (1-5)
14.) Tennessee Titans (3-2) 30.) Indianapolis Colts (0-6)
15.) Washington Redskins (3-2) 31.) Miami Dolphins (0-6)
16.) Atlanta Falcons (3-3) 32.) St. Louis Rams (0-6)
Right now, there is quite a bite of a shake-up in the standings. Detroit, San Francisco, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Oakland, Tennessee, and Washington are all surprising additions to the top 15. Last season the total wins for those 7 teams was 40 total wins compared to 72 loses. This means the combined winning % was just over half of the total games they played (.555). If we factor out the best team in Oakland (who actually made it into the top 15 last season), this % dips down even lower (.500). The rest of these teams finished in the bottom half Detroit (21), San Francisco (24), Tennessee (25), Washington (26), Buffalo (29), and Cincinnati (30).
Intriguingly the average deviation for teams is only a 9% change in position or an overall change of 2.9 spots in total position upwards or downwards. What we are seeing this far in the season is a much greater disparity in the shift. According to ESPN the shift has grown to almost 29%, which equates to a change thus far of 1.7 games. If this continues, the shift will be around 9.28 games and that represents a significant change in the standings that was thought to be very unlikely to ever happen.
Now being early in the season, it is a bit too soon to be making predictions based on limited data. We have no even hit the mid-point of the season and this is very important. Reasons for the very abnormal shift in winning % and place in the league, can in large part, be traced back to the unusual off-season. The lack of OTA’s, shortened training camp, large number of coaching changes, and the personnel changes (that were only able to happen due to the lock out) are all direct consequences of the lock out.
It is also important to note the high volume of injured players that have occurred thus far and how their injuries have directly impacted the standings. It is impossible to say this is the major cause, but it certainly is causing issues on the team level as many teams are struggling to fill roles or find replacements for injured players.
