Learn To W.O.R.K.
All Rights Reserved by AP and Rick Osentoski
After 2 weeks of NFL football it is apparent that this season is going to be very trying for fantasy owners. Here are a list of notable players done for the season or expected to miss significant time this season:
Jonathan Babineaux (DT- ATL), Roscoe Parish (WR-BUF), Jon Beason (LB-CAR), Marion Barber III (RB- CHI), Bo Scaife (TE- CIN), Jordan Shipley (CIN- WR), Eric Steinbach (G- CLE), Arian Foster (RB- HOU) Peyton Manning (QB-IND), Rashad Jennings (RB- JAC), Jamaal Charles (RB- KAN), Eric Berry (S- KAN), Tony Moeaki (TE- KAN), Dan Kopan (C- NE), Marques Colston (WR- NO), Garrett Hartley (K- NO) Domenick Hixon (WR- NYG), Brian Witherspoon (LB- NYG), Terrell Thomas (CB- NYG), Daryll Tapp (DE- PHI), Willie Colon (T- PIT), Luis Castillo (DE- SD), Nate Kaeding (K-SD), Nick Polk (S- SD), John Carleson (TE- SEA), Sidney Rice (WR- SEA), Danny Amendola (WR- STL), Chris Hope (S- TEN), Jarvis Jenkins (DE- WAS)
Out of these players: QB- 1, WR- 5, TE- 3, RB- 4. Now, several more offensive players have been injured or will change status but out of the 13 in the group we have some interesting info:
- 1 of the top 4 scoring QB’s from last season is out (most likely for the year)
- The top 2 scoring RB’s are injured with one done for the year (Jamaal Charles), 2 other valuable handcuff RB’s are also done for the year
- 3 of the top 35 scoring WR’s are either injured or done for the year, and 2 more in the top 75
- 1 of the top 18 scoring TE’s, as well as 2 more in the top 35- all done for the season
Looking at this data it is easy to see injuries are going to be a big part of this season. The lock out clearly has had a negative impact on players whether it be conditioning, over work, or some other factor. This brings us to our Fantasy Football advice: “Learn How to W.O.R.K. (Wager, Offer, Rent, Keep)”. This is a handy stratedgy I have developed to keep players in the hunt for a top finish even after sustaining key injuries to their top picks. The main focus here is interacting with the members of your league, staying realistic, watching trends, and playing the week not the opponent.
WAGER:
This part is simple. Say you have a big time player you spent a high pick go down, and this puts you in a serious bind. You first inclination is to wait it out, or sell fast but you need to consider many things. How much depth is available in the waiver, can I pick up the second stringer and wait until he returns? How long will he be out, and can I afford to wait? If you can wait, make sure it will benefit you. No reason to keep a struggling player when you can move him for value. This leads us to:
OFFER:
This next part is crucial if you are facing a gimpy player, unknown injury, or an extended injury (the type that covers half a season or more). Start feeling around the league as soon as possible for trades. For example:
-Player #1 drafted a top 10 RB and he has will be out for a questionable amount of time with no real “time-table” for return. Player #1 is losing considerable points every week from a weak RB core.
In the instance of Player #1, he should immediately figure out if they should 1) To keep the RB 2) Tjhe backup is available 3) Who in the league may be interested.
I suggest in a tricky injury situation offer a trade to either 1) the owner with the backup (if not a FA) or 2) someone with depth looking to trade.
The next step is to make an offer and keep realistic (but insist on a fair value) ! This part is crucial as you will probably get low balled, and offered a bad trade. This can be a trying process but if you find the right match you can usually walk away with a good trade. Also, it helps to package players together to increase trade interest. You may have to give up a little more now, but think of the future return and the boost you will receive.
RENT:
Now this is a trick that usually works in the first six weeks (due to trade rules maybe longer depending on the league) and can benefit multiple teams. The process is as simple as contacting a team owner and striking a verbal agreement. Say you have an injured player out 2-4 weeks and you need to win now to stay competitive. Make an offer to another team owner to “Rent” their player and make a verbal agreement to return them (before the trade deadline or at whatever period of length of time).
Now this is not a favorable process as, 1) some people ignore the verbal agreement 2) some leagues frown on this as cheating. I will only rent from someone I trust and it has proven useful in the past when I was in jeopardy of falling behind with several injuries. The other benefit of renting is, you can sometimes convince the person you rent with to “buy” your player or turn your rent into a trade. This is again, an option as opposed to the standard drop/add function.
KEEP:
The final piece of the puzzle is learning when to keep your injured player and deal with a loss. Now Unless you play in a straight up Most Points or Best Record league you will likely survive a small down turn. The worst thing you can do is make a bad trade based on fear, cut too early, or give an opponent a leg up on you in the playoffs.
Sure it will sting to lose production from a big time player, and you may lose a few close ones with him on your bench. If you can post a 8-8 or 9-7 record, you are usually still making the playoffs in most leagues. Consider this as down the line you could have potential to win with the player you have on your bench.
In the past I kept a WR on my bench that was injured in Week 4, and was unable to move him. I sat on him while feeling around for offers/rents but could find nothing. I had drafted him 2nd round and he was a major blow to my points. I struggled (12 team league) and managed to make it to the lowest rank in the playoffs. My WR came back in week 13 and successfully increased from 10 pts, 13 pts, and finally a 25 pts performance. I had not played him his first week back but managed to make it to 2nd place because or keeping this WR.
