State of the League 10/19

Nearing the middle point of the season, it is time we examine the league and where it will end up. This season has been especially unusual with many injuries and several surprise teams. As we stand right now here is the breakdown by team standings:

Teams

1.) Green Bay Packers (6-0)                   17.) Chicago Bears (3-3)

2.) Detroit Lions (5-1)                            18.) Houston Texans (3-3)

3.) New England Patriots (5-1)              19.) New York Jets (3-3)

4.) San Francisco 49’ers (5-1)               20.) Cleveland Browns (2-3)

5.) Baltimore Ravens (4-1)                    21.) Dallas Cowboys (2-3)

6.) San Diego Chargers (4-1)                 22.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-3)

7.) Buffalo Bills (4-2)                            23.) Seattle Seahawks (2-3)

8.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)                  24.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-4)

9.) New Orleans Saints (4-2)                 25.) Arizona Cardinals (1-4)

10.) New York Giants (4-2)                  26.) Denver Broncos (1-4)

11.) Oakland Raiders (4-2)                   27.) Carolina Panthers (1-5)

12.) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)               28.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5)

13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2)       29.) Minnesota Vikings (1-5)

14.) Tennessee Titans (3-2)                 30.) Indianapolis Colts (0-6)

15.) Washington Redskins (3-2)         31.) Miami Dolphins (0-6)

16.) Atlanta Falcons (3-3)                   32.) St. Louis Rams (0-6)

Right now, there is quite a bite of a shake-up in the standings. Detroit, San Francisco, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Oakland, Tennessee, and Washington are all surprising additions to the top 15. Last season the total wins for those 7 teams was 40 total wins compared to 72 loses. This means the combined winning % was just over half of the total games they played (.555). If we factor out the best team in Oakland (who actually made it into the top 15 last season), this % dips down even lower (.500). The rest of these teams finished in the bottom half Detroit (21), San Francisco (24), Tennessee (25), Washington (26), Buffalo (29), and Cincinnati (30).

Intriguingly the average deviation for teams is only a 9% change in position or an overall change of 2.9 spots in total position upwards or downwards. What we are seeing this far in the season is a much greater disparity in the shift. According to ESPN the shift has grown to almost 29%, which equates to a change thus far of 1.7 games. If this continues, the shift will be around 9.28 games and that represents a significant change in the standings that was thought to be very unlikely to ever happen.

Now being early in the season, it is a bit too soon to be making predictions based on limited data. We have no even hit the mid-point of the season and this is very important. Reasons for the very abnormal shift in winning % and place in the league, can in large part, be traced back to the unusual off-season. The lack of OTA’s, shortened training camp, large number of coaching changes, and the personnel changes (that were only able to happen due to the lock out) are all direct consequences of the lock out.

It is also important to note the high volume of injured players that have occurred thus far and how their injuries have directly impacted the standings. It is impossible to say this is the major cause, but it certainly is causing issues on the team level as many teams are struggling to fill roles or find replacements for injured players.

Learn To W.O.R.K.

 

All Rights Reserved by AP and Rick Osentoski

After 2 weeks of NFL football it is apparent that this season is going to be very trying for fantasy owners. Here are a list of notable players done for the season or expected to miss significant time this season:

Jonathan Babineaux (DT- ATL), Roscoe Parish (WR-BUF), Jon Beason (LB-CAR), Marion Barber III (RB- CHI), Bo Scaife (TE- CIN), Jordan Shipley (CIN- WR), Eric Steinbach (G- CLE), Arian Foster (RB- HOU)  Peyton Manning (QB-IND), Rashad Jennings (RB- JAC),  Jamaal Charles (RB- KAN), Eric Berry (S- KAN), Tony Moeaki (TE- KAN), Dan Kopan (C- NE), Marques Colston (WR- NO), Garrett Hartley (K- NO) Domenick Hixon (WR- NYG), Brian Witherspoon (LB- NYG), Terrell Thomas (CB- NYG), Daryll Tapp (DE- PHI), Willie Colon (T- PIT), Luis Castillo (DE- SD),  Nate Kaeding (K-SD), Nick Polk (S- SD), John Carleson (TE- SEA), Sidney Rice (WR- SEA), Danny Amendola (WR- STL), Chris Hope (S- TEN), Jarvis Jenkins (DE- WAS)

Out of these players: QB- 1, WR- 5, TE- 3, RB- 4. Now, several more offensive players have been injured or will change status but out of the 13 in the group we have some interesting info:

• 1 of the top 4 scoring QB’s from last season is out (most likely for the year)
• The top 2 scoring RB’s are injured with one done for the year (Jamaal Charles), 2 other valuable handcuff RB’s are also done for the year
• 3 of the top 35 scoring WR’s are either injured or done for the year, and 2 more in the top 75
• 1 of the top 18 scoring TE’s, as well as 2 more in the top 35- all done for the season

Looking at this data it is easy to see injuries are going to be a big part of this season. The lock out clearly has had a negative impact on players whether it be conditioning, over work, or some other factor. This brings us to our Fantasy Football advice: “Learn How to W.O.R.K. (Wager, Offer, Rent, Keep)”. This is a handy stratedgy I have developed to keep players in the hunt for a top finish even after sustaining key injuries to their top picks. The main focus here is interacting with the members of your league, staying realistic, watching trends, and playing the week not the opponent.

WAGER:

This part is simple. Say you have a big time player you spent a high pick go down, and this puts you in a serious bind. You first inclination is to wait it out, or sell fast but you need to consider many things. How much depth is available in the waiver, can I pick up the second stringer and wait until he returns? How long will he be out, and can I afford to wait? If you can wait, make sure it will benefit you. No reason to keep a struggling player when you can move him for value. This leads us to:

OFFER:

This next part is crucial if you are facing a gimpy player, unknown injury, or an extended injury (the type that covers half a season or more). Start feeling around the league as soon as possible for trades. For example:

-Player #1 drafted a top 10 RB and he has will be out for a questionable amount of time with no real “time-table” for return. Player #1 is losing considerable points every week from a weak RB core.

In the instance of Player #1, he should immediately figure out if they should 1) To keep the RB 2) Tjhe backup is available 3) Who in the league may be interested.

I suggest in a tricky injury situation offer a trade to either 1) the owner with the backup (if not a FA) or 2) someone with depth looking to trade.

The next step is to make an offer and keep realistic (but insist on a fair value) ! This part is crucial as you will probably get low balled, and offered a bad trade. This can be a trying process but if you find the right match you can usually walk away with a good trade. Also, it helps to package players together to increase trade interest. You may have to give up a little more now, but think of the future return and the boost you will receive.

RENT:

Now this is a trick that usually works in the first six weeks (due to trade rules maybe longer depending on the league) and can benefit multiple teams. The process is as simple as contacting a team owner and striking a verbal agreement. Say you have an injured player out 2-4 weeks and you need to win now to stay competitive. Make an offer to another team owner to “Rent” their player and make a verbal agreement to return them (before the trade deadline or at whatever period of length of time).

Now this is not a favorable process as, 1) some people ignore the verbal agreement 2) some leagues frown on this as cheating. I will only rent from someone I trust and it has proven useful in the past when I was in jeopardy of falling behind with several injuries. The other benefit of renting is, you can sometimes convince the person you rent with to “buy” your player or turn your rent into a trade. This is again, an option as opposed to the standard drop/add function.

KEEP:

The final piece of the puzzle is learning when to keep your injured player and deal with a loss. Now Unless you play in a straight up Most Points or Best Record league you will likely survive a small down turn. The worst thing you can do is make a bad trade based on fear, cut too early, or give an opponent a leg up on you in the playoffs.

Sure it will sting to lose production from a big time player, and you may lose a few close ones with him on your bench. If you can post a 8-8 or 9-7 record, you are usually still making the playoffs in most leagues. Consider this as down the line you could have potential to win with the player you have on your bench.

In the past I  kept a WR on my bench that was injured in Week 4, and was unable to move him. I sat on him while feeling around for offers/rents but could find nothing. I had drafted him 2nd round and he was a major blow to my points. I struggled (12 team league) and managed to make it to the lowest rank in the playoffs. My WR came back in week 13 and successfully increased from 10 pts, 13 pts, and finally a 25 pts performance. I had not played him his first week back but managed to make it to 2nd place because or keeping this WR.

NFL 2011 Predictions

With the NFL season set to kick off tonight, it is high time to present my picks for this season. I will pick division winners, wild cards, super bowl matchup, super bowl champion and league MVP.

AFC
North- Pittsburgh edges Baltimore by a win to win the division
East- New England clobbers the Jets and wins with the best record in the AFC
West- San Diego makes it through a division filled with mediocrity, carried by Phillip Rivers.
South- Texans finally make a move to win the division but the Titans have just enough talent to get “hot” at the right time and force them out.
Wild Card- Baltimore Ravens
Wild Card- New York Jets

NFC
North- Green Bay wins the division but does not do it convincingly
East- Philadelphia makes their move and captures the division
West- I’m predicting Arizona will scrape together just enough to top the much improved St. Louis Rams
South- Atlanta fights to the top and Matt Ryan makes a case for Elite status
Wild Card- New Orleans hangs around after some tough losses
Wild Card- Tampa Bay could earn this spot if not the Giants will round out the wild cards

Super Bowl- New England vs. Atlanta

New England Patriots win their final ring or the Tom Brady era.

League MVP- Phillip Rivers (beats out Matt Ryan in voting)

Bengals Should Trade Palmer

Reports claim that long time Bengals QB Carson Palmer is seeking a way out of the organization. The USC standout has been with the organization for 8 years and is looking for a new environment. Reports claim Palmer asked the Bengals to trade him or he will “retire”. To which they replied their “will be no trade”.

Basically we have the age old game of chicken between athlete and management. Palmer has given a decent portion of his career to the Bengals and has suffered two severe injuries during his time in Cincinnati (a knee injury and throwing arm injury). During this time the Bengals have made the playoffs a couple of times and at times were brilliant.

The major problem is, largely due to mismanagement, the Bengals have not drafted well. The roster has been hit or miss and populated by trouble maker type players. Leaving Palmer as the brightest spot on the team. This compounded onto his low key persona puts him at odds with the over the top Chad Ochocinco among others. It makes sense that Palmer would want out if he feels the team is troubled.

I for one say trade the man before this drags on throughout the entire off season. Granted you will not replace his talent over night it will take time. In reality the Bengals should be in rebuild mode after this season. They have offensive line problems, coaching issues, and an identity crisis. This could be an opportunity to stock up on draft picks and give themselves a push in the right direction.

It also could prevent a team that seemingly never can find peace, have some quiet time. If Palmer wants out send him to another team, plenty would want his abilities (Vikings, Cardinals, 49 er’s, Jaguars, Panthers, Raiders etc). Why would you want a guy that could threaten to sit out, bring bad press, and cause your locker room to divide? My point is the Bengals could get plenty of attractive picks for Palmer and admit to everyone that they are rebuilding, rather than pretending they are still in contention. I understand why they are being stubborn in this situation, but at a certain point one had to swallow their pride.

Vince Young Off Titans Roster

Titans owner Bud Adams has released that the club will look to separate from QB Vince Young. Young has been up and down with the Titans since 2006. He was thought to be the solution to their QB troubles and was highly touted coming out of the University of Texas.

Young’s stats tell a clear story of his time with the Titans:

2006
-QB Rating 66.7%, Completion 51.5%, 2199 Pass yds, 12 TD, 13 INT, 552 Rush yds, 15 games played

2007
-QB Rating 71.1%, Completion 62.3%, 2546 Pass yds, 9 TD, 17 INT, 395 Rush yds, 15 games played

2008
-QB Rating 64.5%, Completion 61.1%, 219 Pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 27 Rush yds, 3 Games Played

2009
-QB Rating 82.6%, Completion 58.9%, 1879 Pass Yds, 10 TD, 7 INT, 281 Rush yds, 12 Games Played

2010
- QB Rating 98.6%, Completion 59.6%, 1255 Pass yds, 10 TD, 3 INT, 125 Rush yds,

The stats show first that young has never passed for more than 2600 yds and his TD/INT ratio is 1:1. Yes his rating has gone up but it is based on a few okay years (Young has yet to play an entire season). Young has not been durable, reliable, or mature.

My major issue with Young is his lack of stick factor. Basically, he has no definable traits that identify his playing. He has a good versatile arm but his accuracy is not excellent. He is a threat to scramble but he hesitates and does not take advantage of coverage weaknesses. He has big play, comeback ability but his mentality is weak.

In my opinion, Young probably was never forced to properly execute an offense. Blame coaches for taking his athleticism to an extreme and neglecting to teach him proper fundamentals. Young has plenty of opportunities to start in the league, and I could envision him in quite a few places. Right now he needs a free will coach, that will nurture his development. A Pete Carroll type makes sense, that would also be an ironic duo.